…Transpacific rates stay near highs as peak US demand persists.

• SCFI Shanghai-US east coast index is at $10,524 per feu, down less than 1% from recent high; SCFI Shanghai-US west coast index is at $7,584 per feu, highest since July 2024
• Asia-Europe indexes are still declining; WCI’s transpacific assessments are now 2.5 times higher than its Asia-Europe assessments
• AI datacentre buildout adds to box demand. According to IMF, AI hardware and related products now account for more than 10% of the value of the global goods trade.

Container rates to the US continue to widen the gap with rates to Europe. Transpacific rates have remained at very high levels as Asia-Europe rates have fallen back.

…Asian container carriers set for bumper third-quarter earnings.

• Asian carriers poised for sharp rise in third-quarter earnings as higher rates and strong volumes boost revenues
• Evergreen, Yang Ming and Wan Hai’s combined revenue rose 46% year on year to $8.47bn, while OOCL hit a post-pandemic high
• Transpacific demand remains robust, with congestion absorbing extra capacity, although inflation and weaker Asia-Europe demand pose risks.

Strong demand, elevated rates and chronic port congestion propel Asian carriers towards bumper earnings.

…Suez recovery gathers pace, but sector split points to limits ahead.

• Suez recorded its highest monthly transits by tonnage since December 2023, although traffic remains far below pre-Houthi levels
• Containership capacity jumped nearly 40% month on month as big carriers continue to restore Red Sea routing
• Crude growth reflects changing Middle East trade flows, while bulk, LNG and vehicle carrier traffic remain subdued.

Containerships led growth through the Suez Canal in September as large vessels returned to the Red Sea, while geopolitical disruption reshaped crude and LPG tanker flows.

…Hormuz ship attacks hit record as Iran broadens campaign against commercial shipping

• At least 26 attacks or security incidents were recorded in the first half of October, already the highest monthly total since the war began
• Iran’s campaign is widening beyond shuttle tankers, with containerships, bulkers and gas carriers increasingly exposed to attack
• The escalation threatens the fragile recovery in Middle East Gulf oil exports, with analysts warning that sustained tanker losses could make the shuttle system unsustainable.

Iran’s escalating campaign against commercial shipping has pushed attacks around the Strait of Hormuz to a record monthly high, with a widening range of vessels targeted as Tehran seeks to reinforce its leverage over MEG trade.

…China is turning trash into treasure on a vast scale. EV batteries, especially, will help it secure supplies of critical minerals. The European Union worries about China’s vast exports of cheap electric vehicles. On October 12th it said that in December a quota of 350,000 a year would be imposed on hybrid-EV imports from China. This is expected to keep their market share below 10%. But the bloc also frets about China’s dominance over critical minerals used to make these vehicles.

A fast-growing number of EVs will soon be scrapped and replaced. Shredding their batteries yields “black mass”, a powder from which valuable metals such as lithium, cobalt and nickel can be recovered and reused. From next month the EU will make it harder to export this waste. The aim is to encourage more processing of black mass close to home (currently most is shipped to Asia). In August America, which has banned Chinese EVs but still imports lots of Chinese batteries, blocked all black-mass exports. China, however, is unlikely to suffer. Black mass might meet 20-30% of global demand for battery metals by 2050, says the International Energy Agency, a forecaster. So China is supercharging its recycling industries to shore up supplies not just of battery metals, but also of rare earths and much else. The goal is to make the country’s economy less “linear” (where raw materials are made into products that are then thrown away) and more “circular” (closing the loop so recycled waste replaces raw materials). Once recycling efforts were driven by concerns about pollution. Now, amid a global scramble for the materials needed to build a high-tech economy, security has become a primary motive.

…Latin America has caught motorcycle fever. They are cheap, nimble and provide employment, but at a deadly cost. ARAMPANT SPECIES has taken over the urban jungles of Latin America. Small, noisy and remarkably good at squeezing into tight spaces, motorcycles have found the crowded streets of Bogotá, São Paulo and Mexico City an accommodating habitat. They swarm between cars at traffic lights, crowd pavements and are the trusty steeds of delivery riders. They are also multiplying fast: annual motorcycle sales across the region doubled from 3m in 2019 to almost 6m last year. In 2010 there were just five registered motorcycles for every 100 people; by 2024 there were 14. Mexico’s motorcycle fleet more than quadrupled in the decade to 2025, from 2.6m to 10.5m. Motorbikes are a cheap and easy way to weave through horribly congested cities. As public transport has failed to keep pace with rapid, and often informal, urban sprawl, motorcycles have filled the gap. Their buyers are disproportionately young, poor and male. Many work as couriers. Brazil had 351,000 motorcycle gig workers in 2024, 66% more than two years earlier. In Mexico, an industry group estimates that seven in ten motorcycles sold in 2023 were bought for work, including for deliveries and for use as motorcycle taxis. Governments have added fuel to the boom by encouraging their use, in part to support growing domestic industries. In Colombia, where more than 90% of motorcycles sold are assembled locally, bikes of up to 125cc are exempt from vehicle tax; none pays any road tolls. In June Brazil launched subsidized loans for delivery workers to buy locally made bikes.

Professional sumo wrestling comes to America. Meet the people betting Americans will swoon over Japan’s ancient pastime. ON A RECENT evening in Peachtree City, Georgia, Katie Hardeman was training her Black Dragon “boys”. For two hours she put the aspiring sumo wrestlers—mostly middle-aged men—through a grueling workout. Then she invited your correspondent to have a go, strapping her into a mawashi, the Japanese loincloth, and instructing her to charge headfirst into a man’s chest, palms aiming for “tits and pits”. “There’s something electric about it,” says Ms Hardeman, a combat veteran. “We’re trying to overcome the negative connotation in our country that sumo is just fat guys in diapers pushing each other.” On October 10th the Sumo Championship League held its debut match in Austin, Texas. The league is the first of its kind on this side of the Pacific. Sixteen wrestlers competed until the third seed, a 21-year-old Floridian, won gold.

…The summit between Mr Trump and Xi Jinping produced no big breakthroughs. though China and America did agree to reduce tariffs on $30bn worth of each other’s goods. And they said they would set up a US-China Super-Intelligence Dialogue. This would include a mechanism for reporting AI incidents.

…Do you need to walk 10,000 steps a day? How fast you walk may be as important as how much. “WALKING IS MAN’S best medicine,” said Hippocrates, an ancient Greek physician. Or so the story goes. Whether the phrase originated with him is disputed. But it does contain a kernel of truth. Walking is a form of exercise that is free, requires no equipment and is easy for most people to incorporate into their days. But how many steps should one walk—and at what speed—to unlock its benefits? Conventional wisdom sets 10,000 steps per day as a good target. The source of that number, though, is as questionable as Hippocrates’s quotation. Its origins lie not in a clinical trial, but a Japanese advertising campaign for a pedometer launched ahead of the 1964 Tokyo Olympics (10,000, in Japanese Kanji, also looks a little like a person walking). Those committed to getting their steps in should not shy away from the 10,000 marks. But in terms of scientific research, the number barely has a leg to stand on.

…Lionel Messi, one of the greatest-ever footballers, played his last international match for Argentina, scoring a penalty in a 3-0 win against Benin.

Have a great weekend !